Africa is poised to achieve the world’s highest export growth in 2024, with an expected increase of 5.3%, according to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest trade outlook. This surge in exports is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels and reflects the positive trajectory of the continent’s trade dynamics.
Despite a positive export outlook, Africa faces the challenge of lagging import levels due to rising energy and commodity prices. From 2019 to 2023, the continent’s imports fell by 5%, the steepest decline in the world. This difference between increased exports and decreased imports has implications for consumption and income across Africa.
Although the report highlights the growth of digital goods exports in Africa, the base is relatively small, accounting for only 0.9% of total exports in this category. Globally, digital services trade will grow by a solid 9% in 2023 to reach $4.25 trillion, accounting for a significant portion of global exports of goods and services.
However, the trade outlook also highlights some risks to global trade growth. Geopolitical uncertainty, including policy shifts and conflicts in regions such as Europe and the Middle East, poses challenges to global supply chains. Additionally, the effects of climate change, especially on important waterways like the Panama Canal, could disrupt trade flows.
Specifically, given the importance of the Suez Canal on global trade routes, the report points out that trade disruption at the Suez Canal is a potential risk in 2024. The recent canal blockage has increased transportation costs and highlighted the fragility of global logistics networks. Additionally, the forecast points to the possibility of higher food and energy prices, along with higher interest rates in developed countries, as factors that could hinder a recovery in global trade.
Despite these challenges, the WTO remains cautiously optimistic about global trade growth, with a contraction of -1.2% in the previous year, an increase of 2.6% in 2023 and growth in 2024. is expected to rise further to 3.3%. However, addressing the identified risks is critical to sustaining and accelerating the resurgence of global trade.