Dear traders
I look forward to sharing my top swing trading ideas for the coming week. As the market takes a breather amid the quasi-stock sell-off, this week’s thinking will once again be different from last week’s.
There’s definitely an opportunity for a top swing there, but it’s not as easy as it has been over the past few months, as several tech stocks come out of consolidation every week. Things are being reset now and it is essential to adapt. Same thing I did in the semi last week with the short swing idea.
But there is a catalyst that could shake things up this week and cause a major directional move.
So let’s get down to business and share some practical ideas, plans, and trade management for my top swing trading ideas for the coming week.
Nvidia’s annual GTC conference
After going somewhat parabolic, the semiconductor/AI sector has taken a breather and pulled back over the past week. This comes just before a major AI conference (Nvidia’s annual GTC conference) takes place on Monday. The four-day conference will feature over 300 exhibitors, including Meta and OpenAI, and will be a catalyst not just for Nvidia, but for the sector and the market as a whole.
Therefore, it is necessary to stay on top of the latest trends and headlines.
As for Nvidia, I’m not looking for multi-day fluctuations. However, the chart has curved nicely over the past week, pointing to a solid, directional, and reactive opportunity for me.
*Please note that prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact of specific market factors such as liquidity, slippage, fees, etc.
Here’s the plan:
It’s a coiled move, and we’re looking to go long or short depending on the market’s reaction to Monday’s keynote. This is not a multi-day position, but his potential one-day trend play after the stock picks a direction.
Long-Term: Multiple time frames are available with $900 as the upper breakout level. If the stock breaks through this level along with volume, I will go long with a stop below the low of the day or the 5-minute low (I plan to trade this as a 5-minute TF).
When the stock price reaches an intraday high on the 5-minute TF, scale out the position. My high target is $950 and I will use the higher lows to chase the stop.
The short answer is the same as the long idea, just flipped. If the stock were to authoritatively break through Friday’s low, perhaps due to an overwhelming announcement, I would be short against the previous high or breakdown level if a critical moment were to occur. If that goes well, scale out at the intraday low and track the stop at the lower high.
Bounce on SOXL
SOXL worked great last week. It was definitely the top idea on last week’s watch list. However, the sell-off continued for a week in a row and there was a significant deviation from the high, so I would like to focus on a rebound this time. It will react to the movements of NVDA and other major stocks and sector heavyweights.
*Please note that prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact of specific market factors such as liquidity, slippage, fees, etc.
My plan is:
With this week’s catalyst, this will also be a reactive trade. However, many of the top holdings like AMD and AVGO are near major SMAs and well below their highs, so if NVDA’s momentum and individual stocks within the sector find their footing and grab a bid. I would look forward to multiple stock prices. The bounce of the sun.
Therefore, if there is relative strength and positive flows in this sector, I would take a long SOXL with a stop at the low of the day. My first target for a pullback is either a rise in ATR or the momentum breakdown level from last week, $45.50 to $46. Then scale out the remaining positions in a 5-minute time frame as the stock makes new highs. With aggressive momentum and a clear trend, my stops would conservatively be on the 5-minute mark. So if we form a clear pivot on the 5-minute mark and the major holdings start to show weakness, I’m out.
Two additional backburner ideas:
Soeun: Amazing durability and short squeeze. They are scheduled to present at a conference this week. Given how quickly the stock has already soared, I don’t think we’ll see it for long. Rather, I’m looking at $9 to $10 pops for failures and possible setups to sell news.
verb: Small-cap stocks saw an incredible surge in volume on Friday. After Friday’s weak trading, a large amount of longs are now trapped and underwater. Set alerts for potential popbacks to key supply zones, such as $0.65 to $0.80. If the stock pushes back into this area and fails intraday, I will look for shorts to the day’s highs.
important disclosure