Dear traders
I look forward to sharing my top swing trading ideas for the coming week. I’ll detail my exact trading plan for stocks that present favorable risk, reward opportunities, and are likely to show significant direction. Stick with me until the end as I share important lessons.
So let’s get straight to the point.
At the end of the first quarter, we noticed that the momentum breakout setup for large tech stocks lacked follow-through. This happened at a time when capital and performance began to gain momentum in more defensive sectors. I’m interested in sectors like financials, utilities, and industrials, which have fallen significantly recently. It indicates that the risk may be dissipating and necessary adjustments should be made.
So you’ll notice that my swing ideas for the coming week will be very different from last week’s ideas and setups.
MSTR high down continuation short
MSTR took a hit on Thursday’s short report, ultimately showing very relative weakness against the underlying asset Bitcoin. This was a major change in character for a stock that previously traded at a significant premium to Bitcoin.
After Friday’s change in character and weak close, I’m looking for a bounce to lower highs/shorts for a day or two of continuation.
*Please note that prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact of specific market factors such as liquidity, slippage, fees, etc.
My plan is:
I’m looking for stocks that go from the first day of decline to rising towards VWAP development. So around $1750 to $1800, the 5-minute chart fails, thereby confirming the level to short. After that, I intend to go short against that pivot high, with the goal of covering half of the position heading into Thursday’s low.
From there, use lower highs or intraday vwap recoveries to conservatively track stops on the 5 minute time frame. A high target for an all-day or two-day position is a move toward $1550 to $1500.
DJT: Push back into supply zone to short
The stock has failed several times, including rising to $70 last week. Therefore, without any strong bias, we would note that DJT will only react if it continues to trade under overhead pressure and maintains this near-term developing bearish trend.
*Please note that prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical and do not reflect the impact of specific market factors such as liquidity, slippage, fees, etc.
It’s a reactive way of thinking. My plan is:
From Tuesday to Thursday, the stock price was in the $70 range, and it fell every day, confirming the decline of the high. Therefore, I’m looking for the stock to break high and fail intraday around $67 to $69. That will be my entry cue. I don’t want to see the stock fall below Thursday’s high. If that happens, the trend will break in the short term.
So, if a stock makes a 15-minute floor high near its supply zone, you would place a stop above it and sell short. My first goal is a move towards the support zone at $63. After tracking the stop on the 15-minute timeframe using the lower high, we target a move of $60 and then $55, scaling out to the intraday low along the way. This position can be held for up to 3 days.
Important points I would like to share with you:
When momentum shifts and a strategy that has been working well for the past few months loses its edge, traders may be unable to adjust and continue trading strategies that may lose in the short term.
As growth drains capital, we continue to see market-leading companies move sideways, and high-flyers begin to exit, the opportunities set up will be different. Different playbooks are applied and rewards are given. What worked before no longer works. Therefore, it is important to react to the price movements you are seeing and make adjustments in real time rather than after the fact.
important disclosure